Stock Assessment and Management.

Fishery Stock Assessment Models

Historically, stock assessments of Atlantic blue marlin (Makaira nigricans) and white marlin (Tetrapturus albidus), conducted under the auspices of the International Commission for the Conservation of Atlantic Tunas (ICCAT), have been restricted to production modeling approaches. Production models are used due to the unique fisheries and biological aspects of the species which result in a pauci...

Expectations Management and Stock Returns

We show that proxies for firms’ incentives to manage earnings expectations toward beatable levels contain strong predictive power for earnings announcement returns. Firms with stronger incentives to manage expectations predictably underperform before, and subsequently outperform during, their expected earnings announcement months. This predictable V-shaped pattern in prices yields strategy retu...

Earnings management, lawsuits, and stock-for-stock acquirers’ market performance

There is a positive association between stock-for-stock acquirers’ pre-merger abnormal accruals and post-merger announcement lawsuits. The market only partially anticipates the effects of post-merger announcement lawsuits at the merger announcement and the post-merger announcement long-term market underperformance is largely limited to litigated acquisitions. Overall, the evidence suggests that...

Waste Management - Taking Stock

Application to fishery stock assessment

We consider a Monte Carlo Markov chain (MCMC) algorithm for fisheries stock assessment. The biomass of this stock at a given year could be modeled as a nonlinear function of the biomass and catch for the two previous years, of different parameters (recruitment, growth rate, natural mortality rate). Given a time series of annual catch and effort data, we would like to achieve the best fitting be...